The latest CDC data  (thru Oct. 24) says that there have been 114 pediatric deaths from H1N1, a number higher than normal for flu. At the same time, there are a number of blogs, news reports and so on trying to convince us that H1N1 is either (a) some kind of giant conspiracy or (b) being blown out of proportion, and they make arguments like this :

H1N1 is really no big deal for kids. There’s only been 74 pediatric deaths so far this flu season—last flu season there were 117!

Some even provide support for this claim from the CDC itself, which shows this chart:

Did you spot the “how to lie with statistics” move here in the attempt to convince you that H1N1 is no big deal for kids? Because everything I have said so far is true: there have been 114 pediatric deaths in the US from H1N1, 117 pediatric deaths last flu season and 74 this flu season. How can all three of these claims be true at the same time?

It’s simple: “Last year’s flu season” means the 2008-2009 season, and in the US these stats count deaths from September 2008 to the end of August 2009. Included in the 117 total from last year is 43 deaths from H1N1 itself. You can see this in the graph—the first clump of pink deaths (H1N1) actually belongs to the 2008-09 flu season stats—it’s not that all the pinks are being clumped together to get the 74 total of 2009-10. (And yes, the CDC could do a WAY better job of presenting this data so that it does not so easily lend itself to being misrepresented!)

So ask yourself, what really matters to you in assessing the risks of H1N1 to your own family? How many pediatric deaths there are in one flu season or another? Or how many pediatric deaths are due to H1N1, and how this compares to the usual totals from seasonal flu in previous years? Further, it seems to me that if the point of your website/blog/news report is to convince folks that H1N1 is not a big deal for kids—no worse than any seasonal flu, in fact—then your proof of this needs to compare H1N1 stats to seasonal flu stats. Conflating things by talking about “last year’s flu season” and “this year’s flu season” instead of “H1N1 vs. seasonal flu” data is deeply misleading. The 43 deaths that occurred from H1N1 itself among US kids from April-August 2009—which is why we get the high 117 figure for 2008-09—are being used to argue against the risks of H1N1 to kids!

But let me repeat again: the overall risk of H1N1 to kids is very low; only a VERY SMALL minority of kids develop serious complications to the disease. But the risks of death/serious complications for kids from H1N1—very low though they are—are clearly higher than the risk posed by seasonal flu. Whether this risk is high enough to warrant vaccinating your child is a different question, and one that I leave up to you.